S&P 500 Breaks to a New All-Time High
Should you buy at the all-time high?
Investors are conditioned to fear all-time highs ('it can only go down from here'). The data says otherwise — buying at an ATH has historically produced returns IN LINE with the unconditional long-run average. The S&P 500 spends approximately 7% of trading days at an ATH.
| Date | 1M return | 1Y return | 5Y return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1954-09-22 | +0.4% | +41.8% | +72.3% |
| 1958-09-24 | +2.4% | +14.1% | +45.2% |
| 1961-01-27 | +3.6% | +11.3% | +51.7% |
| 1961-11-01 | +4.8% | -16.9% | +17.7% |
| 1963-09-03 | -0.5% | +13.3% | +40.9% |
| 1965-09-27 | +1.7% | -14.1% | -6.9% |
| 1967-05-04 | -6.2% | +4.9% | +13.3% |
| 1968-04-29 | -0.4% | +4.2% | +6.8% |
| 1972-03-06 | +0.2% | +5.0% | -7.3% |
| 1980-07-17 | +3.5% | +7.7% | +58.9% |
| 1982-11-03 | -2.9% | +14.6% | +63.3% |
| 1985-01-21 | +3.4% |
What history says
Editorial commentary written by ALAN analysts. Figures cited below are analyst-authored context — they are not derived from the chart above and may reflect different windows or sources.
The median 12-month return from an ATH is approximately +10%, nearly identical to the unconditional average. New highs beget more new highs — momentum is real.
All-time highs are not rare or extreme events. They are the normal state of a market with a positive long-term drift. Being 'afraid of new highs' means being afraid of the baseline condition.
Every ATH in history was preceded by narratives about why 'this time is different' and why the market was too expensive. These narratives are always present and almost always wrong.
Sitting in cash because the market is at a high has historically meant waiting for a discount that tends to arrive at prices above today's — if new money is idle for fear of highs, consider a written deployment schedule with a firm end date instead of an indefinite wait.