Breadth Thrust Signal
The most reliable bull market confirmation
A breadth thrust occurs when the 10-day advance-decline ratio moves from below 0.40 to above 0.615 within 10 trading days. Developed by Martin Zweig, this signal has fired approximately 15 times since 1945 with a 100% hit rate for positive 12-month returns.
What history says
Editorial commentary written by ALAN analysts. Figures cited below are analyst-authored context — they are not derived from the chart above and may reflect different windows or sources.
Every breadth thrust since 1945 has been followed by positive 12-month returns. The median gain is approximately +24%. This is arguably the single most reliable technical signal in existence.
Breadth thrusts occur only after deep corrections or bear markets. They mark the beginning of a new bull leg. Waiting for this signal means missing early-stage rallies.
After a bear market, clients question every bounce. A breadth thrust says 'this one is different' — broad participation confirms institutional buying, not just short-covering.
After a deep decline, a breadth thrust is a reasonable trigger to complete any staged re-entry plan you paused during the downturn — its historical record as a confirmation signal argues for finishing the plan rather than waiting for the news to improve.