Fed Hikes 75bp — Emergency Tightening
The most aggressive single-meeting move
A 75bp hike is extraordinarily rare — prior to 2022, the last occurred in 1994. The 2022 cycle delivered four consecutive 75bp hikes (June-November 2022), the most aggressive tightening since Volcker in 1980-81.
| Date | 1M return | 1Y return | 5Y return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1958-08-01 | +1.1% | +27.8% | +46.8% |
| 1961-02-01 | +3.3% | +12.8% | +49.7% |
| 1961-08-01 | +0.7% | -14.3% | +22.2% |
| 1968-04-01 | +6.6% | +13.4% | +19.4% |
| 1969-05-01 | -0.6% | -21.3% | -13.1% |
| 1973-05-01 | -2.0% | -15.7% | -9.6% |
| 1974-04-01 | -1.1% | -11.4% | +9.9% |
| 1978-11-01 | -0.6% | +5.1% | +70.8% |
| 1979-10-01 | -5.4% | +13.8% | +52.3% |
| 1980-09-02 | +2.7% | -0.6% | +51.4% |
| 1981-04-01 | -2.8% | -18.0% | +73.8% |
| 1982-01-04 | -3.9% |
What history says
Editorial commentary written by ALAN analysts. Figures cited below are analyst-authored context — they are not derived from the chart above and may reflect different windows or sources.
75bp hikes only happen when inflation is dangerously above target and the Fed has decided that recession risk is secondary to inflation risk. The signal is: the Fed will break things to stop inflation.
The S&P 500 made its October 2022 low while the Fed was still hiking 75bp. Markets are forward-looking — they bottomed when they concluded the worst of the tightening was priced in.
Historically, the period of maximum Fed aggression has coincided with attractive equity entry points. The Fed is tightening because the economy was too hot, which means earnings were strong.
Peak Fed aggression has historically overlapped with attractive entry points — the October 2022 low arrived while 75bp hikes were still landing — so waiting for the Fed to formally finish before rebalancing back to equity targets has meant missing the turn. Consider letting rebalancing bands, not the FOMC calendar, decide when you act.