October: The Crash Month Myth
Why October's reputation is worse than its reality
October is famous for crashes (1929, 1987, 2008) but is actually the 6th-best performing month on average since 1950. Its reputation comes from spectacular outliers, not its typical behavior. October is also historically where bear markets END.
What history says
Editorial commentary written by ALAN analysts. Figures cited below are analyst-authored context — they are not derived from the chart above and may reflect different windows or sources.
The presence of 1929, 1987, and 2008 in October gives it dramatic crash associations. But the median October return since 1950 is +1.5% — solidly positive.
More bear markets have bottomed in October than any other month. The 2002, 2011, and 2022 lows all occurred in October. September is actually the worst-performing month on average.
Send this chart to clients in late September. Preempt the 'should I sell before October?' question with data showing October's actual track record.
Rather than lightening up ahead of October, pre-commit to your rebalancing rules in September — the month's real historical pattern is bear-market bottoms, which punish those who step aside and reward those whose written plan keeps them buying at lows.