Renewables Economics
LCOE, capacity factors, and the storage problem — what makes solar and wind cheap on paper but hard at grid scale
In 2009, the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for utility-scale solar photovoltaic generation was approximately $359 per megawatt-hour, unsubsidized, per Lazard's first LCOE report (subsequently published annually as Lazard LCOE+). Fifteen years later, in June 2024, Lazard's seventeenth annual LCOE+ report assessed the unsubsidized LCOE for new utility-scale solar PV at a mean of approximately $61/MWh, with a range of $29-96/MWh depending on project specifics — a decline of approximately 83% from the 2009 cost level. Onshore wind LCOE has followed a similar trajectory: 2009 unsubsidized at ~$135/MWh; 2024 at a mean of ~$50/MWh per Lazard LCOE+ V17.
The cost-decline story is one of the most dramatic in modern industrial history — comparable to the decline in computing cost per transistor (Moore's Law) or the decline in battery cost per kilowatt-hour through the 2010s and into the 2020s. The implication has been clear for years: solar and wind are now cost-competitive with — and in many cases cheaper than — new gas-fired or coal-fired generation in raw LCOE terms.
That is the opening. Finishing a lesson is where it stops being interesting and starts being useful: the full lesson runs to 7 sections and ends with 6 practice questions. A free account is what opens the rest, and the other 255 lessons in the Academy with it. No card.
What this lesson covers
- 1Capacity factors and the dispatchability gap
- 2Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 — the policy framework that accelerated U.S. renewable build
- 3LCOE arithmetic and what it captures
- 4Lazard LCOE+ V17 (June 2024) — unsubsidized cost ranges by generation technology
- 5The 2009-2024 utility-scale solar cost decline — one of the most dramatic in modern industrial history
- 6Where to see this on the platform
- 7Summary