How the Top Picks Page Works
A plain-English guide to what you're looking at.
How We Track Performance
Picks are time-stamped at publication. Every recommendation is recorded with the analyst, ticker, entry date, and entry price at the moment it goes live. We never go back and edit a pick after the fact.
Closed picks stay in the record forever. Use the Closed tab on the picks page to see every position that's been exited, with its realized return frozen at close. The full track record includes the wins and the losses — nothing gets buried.
Prices are pulled from the same source as the rest of the platform and refreshed in the background while you're on the page. The "as of" timestamp on the hero shows when the displayed numbers were last updated.
USD only. Prices and returns are quoted in U.S. dollars throughout.
The Performance Chart
The line on the picks page is a composite — it represents how the group of currently-active picks has performed as a whole, expressed as a percentage gain or loss from the start of the window you're viewing.
We use the same kind of time-weighted method that professional investment managers use to report a track record. The advantage of that approach: when we add a brand-new pick to the list, it doesn't artificially distort the historical part of the line. The history of what came before stays exactly as it was, and the new pick simply joins the composite from the day it's added forward.
By default, every active pick contributes equally to the composite. Internally we can also assign custom weights — for example, giving higher-conviction picks a larger share — and when we do, the chart label will say "weighted" so you know it's a custom-weighted view rather than equal-weight.
Window rebasing. When you change the chart range — or run the backtester for a specific date window — every pick's return is rebased to its closing price on the first trading day of the window, not the price the pick was originally entered at. So a 7-day window on a pick that was entered three months ago shows the last seven days of price action, not the three-month return. This is important to keep in mind: the "Total return (window)" on the backtester can differ from the "Return" shown on each pick's card on the active-picks page — the card shows return since entry, the backtester shows return within your chosen window.
The dashed gray line is your selected benchmark (SPY by default — the standard S&P 500 ETF — or QQQ, VTI, IWM, DIA), drawn over the same date window for context. The benchmark is rebased to start at zero on the same first trading day so you're comparing apples-to-apples.
Annualized return. For windows shorter than about one month (21 trading days), the annualized-return number is hidden — short windows compound noise into wild numbers (a +1% week annualized to roughly +67% per year) which would be misleading rather than informative. For longer windows the annualized figure is a standard geometric annualization of the window's total return.
What the Numbers on the Hero Mean
Avg Return
The average percentage gain or loss across every pick we've published, including both active and closed.
vs SPY (α)
How much better — or worse — the picks composite has done compared to a buy-and-hold of SPY over the same date window. A positive number means the picks have outperformed the benchmark.
CAGR
The composite's growth rate, expressed as an annualized number so you can compare it to a yearly benchmark return.
Win Rate
The share of picks that are currently in the green. If this is 70%, seven out of every ten picks we've published are above their entry price.
Sharpe
A standard risk-adjusted return measure. Higher is better. It tells you how much return the composite is delivering for the amount of bumpiness (volatility) along the way.
Max DD
"Maximum drawdown" — the worst peak-to-trough decline the composite has experienced. A −15% max DD means there was a stretch where the composite was 15 percentage points below its prior high before recovering.
Vol (annualized)
How bumpy the day-to-day moves of the composite are, expressed as an annualized number. Higher means more turbulent.
Avg Hold
The average number of days picks have been held — useful for understanding the time horizon of the strategy.
Hit Rate by Conviction
For each conviction tier (High / Medium / Low), the share of picks in that tier that are profitable. This is the test of whether the conviction ratings actually predict outcomes.
What the Numbers in the Pick Detail View Mean
Return
The percentage change from entry price to the latest price (or to the close price for closed picks).
Annualized
The pick's return, scaled to a yearly equivalent. Suppressed for picks held less than a week to avoid wild numbers from short windows.
Days Held
Calendar days from entry to today (or to close, for closed picks).
To Target
How far the current price is from the analyst's published price target. Positive means there's still room to run; negative means the price has already passed the target.
Max Gain
The biggest favorable move from entry the pick has reached at any point in its history. This is a "could have sold here" reference, not the current return.
DD from Peak
How far the current price is below the pick's all-time high since entry. The "worst" sub-line is the deepest pullback the pick has ever suffered.
Stop Loss / Distance to Stop
The analyst-set risk-defined exit level and how much cushion is left above it. If the price has ever touched the stop, the Risks tab will show a breach warning.
Data Sources & Freshness
Equity prices are pulled from our internal data service and refreshed in the background while you're on the picks page. Newly-published information lands automatically — you don't have to reload.
Benchmark prices (SPY, QQQ, VTI, IWM, DIA) are pulled from the same historical-price service and cached locally. When you run a backtest with a benchmark we have not yet cached for your window, the system fetches it transparently before computing the comparison line. If the upstream service is unavailable, the backtest still computes the picks-composite and surfaces a "Benchmark data unavailable" note above the chart — it does not silently drop the line.
The "as of" timestamp on the hero is the moment the summary numbers were last computed. Underlying prices may be a few seconds older.
Limitations & Caveats
This is a paper composite, not a tradeable portfolio. Transaction costs, slippage, taxes, and borrow costs are not modeled. A real portfolio that tried to mirror the composite would have lower returns due to those frictions.
The picks track record is an analyst track record — it is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past performance does not predict future results.
Pick-level data (entry price, target, stop, thesis) is set by the analyst at publication time and displayed verbatim. Price-history adjustments for splits and dividends are the responsibility of the underlying data service.