13 days at the nuclear brink; market recovered in days
During the 13-day standoff the S&P 500 dropped roughly 7%, with the sharpest move on October 23 — the day after Kennedy's televised address. The index recovered most of that decline by October 28. November 1962 was the best month of the cycle at +9%, and the S&P 500 returned +22.8% in calendar 1963.
ALAN INTELLIGENCE
ALAN INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.com
ALAN IntelligenceComputed 2026-11-11
Bars: the S&P 500 forward return after the single occurrence. One event, so there is no percentile range.
Based on a single historical event, so there is no spread to show: this is one outcome, not a distribution. Last triggered: 1962-10-23.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer to buy or sell any security, or a recommendation. Data from publicly available sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal.
alanglobalintelligence.com
ALAN GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.comSource: S&P 500 daily closes · Computed 2026-11-11
Historical occurrencesshowing 1 of 1
Date
1M return
1Y return
5Y return
1962-10-23
+15.1%
+36.5%
+76.5%
What history says
Editorial commentary written by ALAN analysts. Figures cited below are analyst-authored context — they are not derived from the chart above and may reflect different windows or sources.
Markets priced in nuclear risk — and recovered in days
The roughly 7% drawdown was largely erased by end of October. November 1962 delivered a +9% rally as the threat receded.
Broader context: the Kennedy Slide
The S&P 500 had already fallen 28% from its December 1961 high to a June 1962 low. The Cuban Missile Crisis retested that low and marked the definitive turning point for the recovery.
Worst-case scenarios rarely persist in prices
Even the closest the world came to nuclear war produced a single-digit drawdown that lasted days, not months. Markets discount probabilities, not worst-case outcomes.
For your portfolio
Even at the nuclear brink, equities repriced by single digits and recovered within days — markets discount probabilities, not doomsday scenarios. Rather than hedging outcomes no portfolio can insure, review that your allocation matches your actual risk tolerance so the next existential headline cannot force a sale.
For information and research only. Not investment advice. ALAN does not place trades or execute orders. Figures come from the sources shown and can lag the market; verify independently before making decisions. Past performance is not predictive of future results.
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