Nixon resigned on August 9, 1974 amid Watergate. The S&P 500 was already deep in a bear market — down roughly 40% from its January 1973 peak driven by the OPEC oil embargo, stagflation, and recession. The resignation accelerated selling; the S&P fell approximately 12% in August 1974 alone. The bear bottomed at 62.28 on October 3, 1974.
ALAN INTELLIGENCE
ALAN INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.com
ALAN IntelligenceComputed 2026-11-11
Bars: the S&P 500 forward return after the single occurrence. One event, so there is no percentile range.
Based on a single historical event, so there is no spread to show: this is one outcome, not a distribution. Last triggered: 1974-08-09.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer to buy or sell any security, or a recommendation. Data from publicly available sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal.
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ALAN GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.comSource: S&P 500 daily closes · Computed 2026-11-11
Historical occurrencesshowing 1 of 1
Date
1M return
1Y return
5Y return
1974-08-09
-14.4%
+6.4%
+29.0%
What history says
Editorial commentary written by ALAN analysts. Figures cited below are analyst-authored context — they are not derived from the chart above and may reflect different windows or sources.
The scandal did not cause the bear market
The 1973-74 bear was driven by the OPEC oil embargo, double-digit inflation, and recession. Watergate added volatility but was not the primary driver of the 48% peak-to-trough decline.
Markets continued falling after the resignation
Nixon's departure did not mark a bottom. The S&P 500 dropped another 20%+ between August 9 and the October 3 trough. Removing political uncertainty did not remove economic headwinds.
Constitutional crises are not investment signals
Political turmoil generates anxiety but rarely drives lasting market direction. The macro cycle — oil, inflation, Fed policy — determined the trajectory.
For your portfolio
Constitutional crises make poor allocation signals — the 1974 bear was priced off oil, inflation, and the Fed, and it kept falling after the resignation supposedly cleared the air. Keep portfolio reviews anchored to the macro cycle rather than the political news cycle.
For information and research only. Not investment advice. ALAN does not place trades or execute orders. Figures come from the sources shown and can lag the market; verify independently before making decisions. Past performance is not predictive of future results.
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