SARS infected over 8,000 people and killed 774 globally. The S&P 500 fell 8-10% from January to mid-March 2003, entangled with the dot-com hangover and Iraq War uncertainty. Once the WHO declared SARS contained on July 5, 2003, the S&P 500 rallied +18.6% over six months and finished the year up over 26%.
ALAN INTELLIGENCE
ALAN INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.com
ALAN IntelligenceComputed 2026-11-10
Bars: the S&P 500 forward return after the single occurrence. One event, so there is no percentile range.
Based on a single historical event, so there is no spread to show: this is one outcome, not a distribution. Last triggered: 2003-03-12.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer to buy or sell any security, or a recommendation. Data from publicly available sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal.
alanglobalintelligence.com
ALAN GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.comSource: S&P 500 daily closes · Computed 2026-11-10
Historical occurrencesshowing 1 of 1
Date
1M return
1Y return
5Y return
2003-03-12
+8.4%
+37.6%
+63.6%
What history says
Editorial commentary written by ALAN analysts. Figures cited below are analyst-authored context — they are not derived from the chart above and may reflect different windows or sources.
The pandemic coincided with the dot-com bottom
SARS hit while the market was already deeply oversold from the 2000-2002 bear. Separating the pandemic selloff from the bear market bottom is nearly impossible.
Asian markets bore the brunt, not the S&P 500
Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell roughly 15% during peak SARS fear. US market impact was muted because domestic economic exposure was minimal.
Health scares follow a repeating pattern
SARS, Ebola (2014), and Zika (2016) each caused brief volatility but no lasting S&P 500 damage. COVID-19 broke this pattern because of the unprecedented economic shutdown, not the virus itself.
For your portfolio
Health scares before COVID followed a consistent arc — regional equity pain, brief global volatility, recovery on containment. Rather than de-risking on outbreak headlines, consider reviewing which holdings carry genuine revenue exposure to the affected region, and let containment milestones rather than case counts mark the fundamental turn.
For information and research only. Not investment advice. ALAN does not place trades or execute orders. Figures come from the sources shown and can lag the market; verify independently before making decisions. Past performance is not predictive of future results.
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