Cuban Missile Crisis — October 16-28, 1962
13 days at the nuclear brink; market recovered in days
During the 13-day standoff the S&P 500 dropped roughly 7%, with the sharpest move on October 23 — the day after Kennedy's televised address. The index recovered most of that decline by October 28. November 1962 was the best month of the cycle at +9%, and the S&P 500 returned +22.8% in calendar 1963.
What history says
Editorial commentary written by ALAN analysts. Figures cited below are analyst-authored context — they are not derived from the chart above and may reflect different windows or sources.
The roughly 7% drawdown was largely erased by end of October. November 1962 delivered a +9% rally as the threat receded.
The S&P 500 had already fallen 28% from its December 1961 high to a June 1962 low. The Cuban Missile Crisis retested that low and marked the definitive turning point for the recovery.
Even the closest the world came to nuclear war produced a single-digit drawdown that lasted days, not months. Markets discount probabilities, not worst-case outcomes.
Even at the nuclear brink, equities repriced by single digits and recovered within days — markets discount probabilities, not doomsday scenarios. Rather than hedging outcomes no portfolio can insure, review that your allocation matches your actual risk tolerance so the next existential headline cannot force a sale.