Russia Invades Ukraine — February 24, 2022
The largest European war since WWII begins
Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 triggered a 5% S&P 500 decline in the first week. Despite energy price spikes and geopolitical escalation, the equity decline was driven more by the Fed's rate hikes than by the war itself.
| Date | 1M return | 1Y return | 5Y return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-02-24 | +5.9% | -7.2% | — |
What history says
Editorial commentary written by ALAN analysts. Figures cited below are analyst-authored context — they are not derived from the chart above and may reflect different windows or sources.
The 2022 bear market (-25%) was primarily driven by the Fed's aggressive rate hiking cycle, not the war. The invasion was a secondary factor that exacerbated energy inflation.
The Euro Stoxx 50 fell 20% in the first month. European dependence on Russian energy created genuine economic vulnerability that US markets did not face.
Oil hit $130/barrel in March 2022 then fell below $80 by year-end. Wheat doubled then halved. Commodity spikes from geopolitical events are historically transitory.
When war headlines hit, resist repricing your equity view on the event itself — reprice the second-order path: commodities, inflation, and the policy response. The portfolio question in February 2022 was inflation duration, and it still would have been without the war.