The U.S. invasion of Iraq began on March 20, 2003. The S&P 500 had bottomed weeks earlier — the war actually marked the bottom of the dot-com bear market. The 12-month return from March 2003 was +35%.
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ALAN INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.com
ALAN IntelligenceData as of 2026-08-30
Bars: median S&P 500 forward return. Whiskers: 25th-75th percentile. n = 1 occurrences.
Based on 1 historical occurrences. Last triggered: 2003-03-20.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer to buy or sell any security, or a recommendation. Data from publicly available sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal.
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ALAN GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.comSource: S&P 500 daily closes · Generated 2026-08-30
Historical occurrencesshowing 1 of 1
Date
1M return
1Y return
5Y return
2003-03-20
+1.9%
+26.7%
+54.1%
What history says
Editorial commentary written by ALAN analysts. Figures cited below are analyst-authored context — they are not derived from the chart above and may reflect different windows or sources.
The market bottomed BEFORE the war started
Markets are forward-looking. By March 2003, the war was widely expected and priced in. The actual commencement removed uncertainty and allowed the market to rally.
Geopolitical events rarely change fundamental trajectories
The dot-com bear was ending because valuations had normalized and the economy was recovering. The Iraq war was a sideshow to the fundamental cycle — not a driver of it.
Client lesson: don't let geopolitics drive portfolio decisions
Investors who sold 'because of the war' missed the beginning of a 5-year bull market. Geopolitics creates volatility but rarely changes the direction of an economy.
For your portfolio
A widely telegraphed war is largely in the price before the first strike — in 2003 the bear market bottomed weeks before the invasion began. If you are holding cash waiting for geopolitical clarity, consider that markets have historically re-rated on the removal of uncertainty, not the arrival of good news.
For information and research only. Not investment advice. ALAN does not place trades or execute orders. Figures come from the sources shown and can lag the market; verify independently before making decisions. Past performance is not predictive of future results.
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ALAN is not a broker-dealer or investment advisor. All data is informational only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.