Political brinksmanship creates volatility but never default
Major standoffs in 2011, 2013, and 2023. The 2011 crisis: S&P downgrade on August 5 and a 17% equity decline. The 2013 crisis: 16-day shutdown but S&P 500 gained +3.1%. The 2023 crisis: minimal reaction. A deal was always reached.
ALAN INTELLIGENCE
ALAN INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.com
ALAN IntelligenceData as of 2026-08-30
Every historical instance, overlaid — S&P 500 forward path from the event
Each instance (n=3)Median path25th-75th percentileCurrent: 2023
Median forward returns by horizon
Bars: median S&P 500 forward return. Whiskers: 25th-75th percentile. n = 3 occurrences.
Based on 3 historical occurrences. Last triggered: 2023-05-01.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer to buy or sell any security, or a recommendation. Data from publicly available sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal.
alanglobalintelligence.com
ALAN GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.comSource: S&P 500 daily closes · Generated 2026-08-30
Historical occurrencesshowing 3 of 3
Date
1M return
1Y return
5Y return
2011-08-08
+7.1%
+25.2%
+94.3%
2013-10-01
+4.0%
+14.8%
+72.5%
2023-05-01
+0.3%
+20.4%
—
What history says
Editorial commentary written by ALAN analysts. Figures cited below are analyst-authored context — they are not derived from the chart above and may reflect different windows or sources.
2011 was the exception, not the template
The 17% decline was amplified by the simultaneous European sovereign debt crisis. Subsequent standoffs produced far milder reactions.
The US has never defaulted — and markets price that expectation
Each successive crisis produced a smaller equity reaction: -17% in 2011, flat in 2013, negligible in 2023.
Treasuries rallied during the downgrade — the ultimate irony
Investors fleeing to safety bought the very asset that had just been downgraded.
For your portfolio
Each successive standoff has drawn a smaller market response, and even 2011's decline — amplified by Europe's simultaneous crisis — saw Treasuries rally through their own downgrade. Position so that brinksmanship season requires nothing of you: adequate cash for near-term needs and no leverage that a volatile headline month could call.
For information and research only. Not investment advice. ALAN does not place trades or execute orders. Figures come from the sources shown and can lag the market; verify independently before making decisions. Past performance is not predictive of future results.
LIVENYSE — · ETFEED MKT · — msBUILD ced8372
ALAN is not a broker-dealer or investment advisor. All data is informational only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.