Greek Debt Crisis / Grexit Scare — June-July 2015
First developed-nation IMF default and eurozone exit fears
Greece became the first developed country to miss an IMF payment on June 30, 2015. Capital controls were imposed and banks shut for three weeks. The S&P 500 fell approximately 3-4% then recovered fully within two weeks. European equities were hit harder — Euro Stoxx 50 fell 11% in two days.
What history says
Editorial commentary written by ALAN analysts. Figures cited below are analyst-authored context — they are not derived from the chart above and may reflect different windows or sources.
The S&P 500 declined 3-4% during peak Grexit panic and recovered fully within 14 calendar days.
Markets were pricing risk that Grexit would trigger bank runs in Spain, Italy, and Portugal. ECB backstops prevented any domino effect.
Greeks voted 61% against austerity, yet the government signed an even harsher bailout eight days later.
Watch the backstop, not the borrower: Grexit fear was really contagion fear, and central-bank support settled it — US equities recovered within two weeks. Where sovereign stress does merit review is any yield-seeking exposure to peripheral debt or European financials; the diversified US sleeve historically needed no defense.