Track record
Every thesis, every outcome
Every standing thesis ALAN Insights has opened lives here, whether it is still open or has closed, and whether it turned out right or wrong. Nothing is removed once it is published.
3 open0 closed0 right0 wrongHit rate withheld: a rate is only published once at least 10 theses have closed (0 so far), because a rate off a handful of calls is noise, not a track record.
OpenedThesisHorizonConfidenceStatusOutcome
Opened2026-09-21The gap between CCC-rated and broad high-yield credit spreads stays above 600 basis points through June 2027, and small companies with debt above three times earnings keep trailing the indexOpened by 2026-09-21-the-fed-raised-the-price-of-moneyHorizon2027-06-30Confidence60%StatusOpenOutcome— Opened2026-09-29The Fed's next hikes depend on Iran: with a U.S.-Iran deal or ceasefire that reopens the Strait of Hormuz, announced by December 31, 2026, the upper limit of the federal funds target is 4.25% or lower on March 31, 2027 (at most one more hike); with no such deal by then, it is 4.50% or higher (at least two more hikes); from 4.00% todayOpened by 2026-09-29-the-bond-market-is-betting-the-fed-winsHorizon2027-03-31Confidence55%StatusOpenOutcome—