How ALAN works
Every number on ALAN is either copied from a public record or labelled as ALAN's own estimate.
Below: where each of 15 numbers comes from, how old it is when it becomes public, and the full method behind it. Tap any line to jump to the detail.
The short version
- 1Company numbers: Sales, profit and every statement are copied from the reports companies file with the SEC.See why ›
- 2Trades and owners: Insider, Congress and fund trades come from the reports each must file, with both dates shown.See why ›
- 3ALAN's estimates: Fair value, daily labels and world-event likelihoods are ALAN's own, shown as ranges and bands, and scored.See why ›
- 4Prices and dates: Prices are delayed and an earnings date ALAN guessed always says "estimated".See why ›
How old each record is when it becomes public
Insider trades are about 2 days old. Congress trades about 25 days. Fund holdings about 45 days.
Sales, profit and every statement are copied from the reports companies file with the SEC. ALAN only does the arithmetic.
The numberHow ALAN makes itSource and timingFull method
Sales, profit, cash, debt
Taken from each annual report (10-K) and quarterly report (10-Q), using the labels the company itself attaches to every figure. ALAN does not adjust them. Free shows 7 years of history; Pro shows 15.
SEC EDGAR. Over the last 12 months quarterly reports arrived 31 days after the quarter, annual reports 49 days after the year.
Growth and margins
Worked out from those filed figures: this period against the same period a year earlier, and profit as a share of sales.
Computed by ALAN from the filing. Same arithmetic for every company.
What changedPRO
ALAN sets each new report beside the one before and lists what was added, removed or changed, with the figures from both.
The two reports themselves, linked. Covers 30 large companies today.
Every trade shows two dates: when it happened and when it was reported. The gap tells you how old the news is.
The numberHow ALAN makes itSource and timingFull method
Insider trades
Company officers and directors must report a trade within 2 business days. ALAN separates open-market buys and sells from sales planned in advance, gifts, shares withheld for tax and shares that vested, so a "sold" means sold on the market.
Form 4, each one linked. Over the last 12 months the typical report came 2 days after the trade.
Congress trades
Members report the trade, the date and the amount as a range, such as $1,001 to $15,000. ALAN shows the range as reported, never a single made-up figure, and says when a spouse or child made the trade.
House and Senate trade reports. Legal limit 45 days; typical over the last 12 months, 25 days.
Big funds
Large investment managers list the US stocks they hold once a quarter. ALAN compares two quarters to show who added and who sold, and only calls a fund a "new holder" when both quarters are on file. Short positions are not reported.
Form 13F, due 45 days after the quarter ends. Over the last 12 months the typical report came 45 days after.
Anything that is ALAN's view rather than a fact is labelled as ALAN's, shown as a range, and checked against what happened.
The numberHow ALAN makes itSource and timingFull method
Fair value range
Two methods, blended: a model of the cash the business produces, and what similar-sized companies in the same sector are paid for their growth and margins. When the two disagree the range widens; when the data is too thin, no number is shown. ALAN model estimates, not investment advice. Do your own research.
The company's filings, market prices and analyst estimates.
Daily label
Each day ALAN labels stocks bullish, bearish or neutral. The scorecard shows how those labels turned out once the waiting period ended, hits and misses together.
Prices and filings above. Scored after the fact.
Alex's calls
The calls made in ALAN Insights letters, each with a date, a level and a deadline, marked open, confirmed or reversed.
Each letter, linked.
Prices are delayed, never live. An earnings date ALAN worked out itself always says "estimated".
The numberHow ALAN makes itSource and timingFull method
Prices
Delayed quotes during the day. Your portfolio's value, gains and charts use each stock's official closing price, one source for every page.
A third-party market data feed.
Earnings dates
Confirmed means the company announced the date. Otherwise ALAN estimates it from last year's timing and shows a span, such as "late January (estimated)", never a single day.
Company announcements and past report dates.
Rates, inflation, jobs
Copied from the agencies that publish them. Release dates come from each agency's own calendar.
FRED (St. Louis Fed) and the agencies' release calendars.
See a number that does not match its filing? Send the page and the number and we will check it against the source.
team@alanglobalintelligence.com
ALAN is research software, not a registered investment adviser. It never places trades or holds your money. Legal documents